Saturday, July 16, 2011

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  • thakurrajiv
    07-30 12:02 PM
    You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.

    Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
    Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.

    The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.

    So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.

    Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
    Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
    If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)

    If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.

    This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:

    E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon

    Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
    alphais the excess return
    betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
    epsalonis error term or un explained return.

    (Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)

    This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.

    And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.

    Best of luck!!

    Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
    I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
    There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.





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  • lvinaykumar
    11-03 10:28 PM
    Done....





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  • SunnySurya
    06-11 09:42 AM
    It is a very complicated case, I don't think any one on this forum is qualified to answer your questions, but the incident is indeed a tragic one.

    I don't think your GC will be affected though as it is a civil and not a criminal case.

    Thanks guys for the moral support and quick responses.

    More details are as follows:

    1. This accident occurred in 18 months back in CA
    2. We were going on high way and suddenly the car infront of me came to a sudden halt and as I didn't had any reaction time, even though I applied brakes I went and rammed into the van in front of me, which in turn hit the car infront (like a ripple effect) and totally 8 cars were involved in that collision.
    3. So at first we thought it is entirely my fault as I was coming at 50s and I rear ended the care which inturn created this ripple effect.
    4. But the actual scenario is, the van infront of me came to halt, as it rear ended the car infront of it and due to which the other car hit the one infront.

    So already one accident happened and I caused one more and as mine was a 11 seater and coming at 50s the impact was high and involved in 8 cars.
    All this happened within in mins or secs, I would say

    --> --> --> --> --> --> --> -->
    Myself car1 car2 car3 car4 car5 car6 car7

    In the above pictorial representation,
    a) car 1 hit car2 which in turn hit car3 (1st impact)
    b) Myself hit car1 again which ripple effected all the way upto car7 (2nd one)

    I was the only person injured and and had to be hospitalized with bi-lateral hip fractures and right knee fractures and was out of work for 4 months.Luickly my insurance covered most of the amount thats been charged(around 300K)

    Finally I recovered to a great extent and out of blue gets a lawsuit from the owner of car3 against myself, Car1 and car2.

    BTW, insurance determined that my fault is 80% as I caused the greater collision and they paid the property damages for all the cars involved.

    As per the lawsuit, seems car3 drivers spouse had herniated disc due to this accident and are expecting $200,000 for future treatment

    So they are claiming the following:
    3 milliion for : other damages(emotional etc.....)
    200,0000 for: future treatment
    50,000 for: lost wages

    Thats is what the story of my life :(

    Hope this gives u more details to provide me with more suggestions.





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  • from Alice In Wonderland.



  • Nagireddi
    01-31 06:24 PM
    I have just voted.



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  • grupak
    06-13 12:18 PM
    There are 3 bills in congress that will reduce the backlog in EB3. Thats quite an achievement because no matter what bright ideas we might have in this forum, getting the representatives in congress to adopt the "language" for the bills is very hard.

    So, lets take advantage of what we have in our plate right now. We need the support of CHC members. So call them. And also call your local representatives.

    This is the best option we have right now. Lets do our best. Make the calls.





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  • desi485
    02-11 02:24 PM
    I did paid consultation to find answer to this question with murthy office. As per them, one can do transfer and extension of H1B even after using AP as long as the current I-797 is still valid.

    Thank you so much for sharing your information with the rest of us. It is people like you who makes this IV Forums so valuable.

    What 'casinoroyale' mentioned does sound logical to me. H1 can either be VALID or INVALID. (there is no third state). if its valid it can be transferred or extended.

    If someone says its valid but can not be transferred, means we are talking about a third kind of H1B here which is neither VALID nor INVALID. An H1B only valid with current employer and which can not be transferred or even extended. Thankfully, this kind of third state does not exists.

    However I am no legal expert on this and hence asking others to share their experience on this.



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  • The Caterpillar (Alice and



  • chanduv23
    01-22 09:43 AM
    That is correct. Since H1-B petition is filed by employer, it can only be legally challenged by the employer only. Employee is beneficiary and therefore has very limited legal rights to challenge even if petition is denied.

    Now, consider this hypothetical example, on practical note, if an employer files a legal suit, the employer must be able to defend his H1-B obligations for all its employees. That includes paying H1-B wages on "bench", H1-B worker working on sites specified by LCA, reporting to USCIS when H1-B worker resigns or is fired. This could be problematic for many small-time job-shops (aka body-shoppers).


    ________________
    Not a legal advice.


    Lets not assume we know all legal stuff.
    Defining employer - employee relationship is different from abuse and we cannot relate these two.

    I do agree that to challenge the law rightfully, one has to have credibility.





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  • Macaca
    03-09 11:18 AM
    I dont think any of your postings are less stimulating but I guess there is no big impact on these free lunchers.

    Another example from here (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=3445&page=6).
    Please don't ignore the undernourished recurring contribution thread. Good things will come up on the floor with a nourished and healthy Patton Boggs. Thanks.
    Response (currently deleted)

    Macaca will keep asking and asking and asking.
    .....
    Macaca keep asking ...

    Please keep in mind that I (anurakt, AmitJoey, Neelu, Sunny1000, ...) are not begging for themselves. We are begging for everyone reading this because IV can not survive with current financial contributions.

    Also, please keep in mind that my contributions (financial + effort) are < 5% the contributions of core. Please don't take it for granted.



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  • Alice In Wonderland



  • immi2006
    05-25 11:06 AM
    We all had a good time so far in US compared to the freshers .

    It seems like any change in the immigration system is only going to land us in a worst position than we are in....

    And looking at what is happening, I think it is naive to think we can influence the system to make it better for us.

    Any noise we make seems to be making our opponents solidify and press us even harder.

    I know this is not an upbeat comment that every IV member seem to expect, but this has been a depressing week, in an already depressing decade. :(





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  • Alice in Wonderland (2010)



  • for_gc
    06-07 08:37 AM
    We need to cut all the negativity here on this forum and focus on things where we can actually make a difference in intellectual argumentative way.

    It is absolutely useless at this point to predict the visa bulletins when we have a fair idea that there is about 3 or so years worth of backlog for EB2 and possibly much more for EB3.

    This article shows a lot of research and thought process has gone into its making.

    Great Job!



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  • the caterpillar always



  • SGP
    04-19 02:49 PM
    Congrats. Enjoy your freedom.





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  • Abstract Cartoon Alice



  • immi_twinges
    07-17 01:21 PM
    i am with you. we should request that USCIS recapture unused visas!

    Lets ask Core not to just go with the temporary fix of July visa bulliten.
    We might apply for EAD and AP but what if they throw our papers some where and repeat the same thing.
    This time they will be very careful in issuing visa bulliten

    In future very slow progression in visa dates...adjudicating cases very slowly always stating that due to july visa bulliten we have lots of cases ...we will not be able to do anything until we sort ou...blah blah...

    This is not the fix
    We should be firm with our goals...

    Lets come up with some ideas....
    Lets not ask what to do...lets think and come up with an idea...and then we shall decide if it works or not...
    When some one first suggested flower campaign everyone took it as a joke...it was not implemented before some one sent the flowers and showed the receipt number...

    I was following core for a long time...this the biggest response i have ever seen from the members...

    Lets continue it...

    My idea ...lets not just accept the temporary fix...we should fight the congress until they come up with a plan of fixing the GC issue.

    The congress talks about fixing illegal immigration..Lets ask them to fix the legal immigration first.

    Unless we are really strong about it...nothing can be accomplished..

    They cant fix the existing legal system but they are ready with the plans of fixing illegal immigration...of course it failed but still they had big impact...



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  • Doesntanimated and wonderland



  • vadicherla
    05-01 04:29 PM
    My application is at NSC





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  • belmontboy
    04-18 06:58 PM
    BelmontBoy,
    You didn't answer my question. Can you work for two companies processing your green card at the same time. I am working for employer A for 13 years and EB3 green card process pending for 8 years. Now while working for Company A, Can I start green card process through Company B(for part time work) and do porting to EB2? Please clarify. I am not intending to quit immediately after getting Green Card, I will work for 6 months after Green card for Company B(for part time)?

    Is this legal to work full time for one company and part time for another company(I have EAD), both of them are processing green card at the same time? Is there a chance of getting RFE's OR Is there a chance of getting your original application getting rejected because of multiple employments and two green card process's at the same time.
    Thanks
    NN

    yes you can. There is no rule that only one GC app can be active.

    BTW, let's stop discussing this on this thread.

    Let's spare this thread for OP's GC celebration party :)



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  • alice in wonderland



  • bkam
    06-09 12:48 PM
    "...Demand" and "right" will work up to the point in which we don't irate Americans. America has been sympathetic to immigrants in good part thanks to the capacity that America has to accomodate us here. If an excessive number of immigrants get in and that alarm citizens, I can tell you this country will become as unsympathetic to immigrants as many European countries are.

    ....Just be careful with the idea of "demanding" and "rights" though :)

    Marlon2006,

    I agree that it is very important to clear what is "rihgt", "privilege" and "symphaty". I tried to do that several times before and in order to avoid any misunderstanding have quoted below a part of one of my messages. Please read it carefully.

    "I do believe that I HAVE THE RIGHT to get my LCA adjudicated in 2-3 months time (OK, make it 6 months, having in mind you are dealing with an inefficient administration).
    I do believe that I HAVE THE RIGHT to know in short term (2-3 months, not 3-4 years !) if I am eligible for permanent residency.
    I do believe that I HAVE THE RIGHT to know how long (if approved) will take the I-485 process.

    These are clear, simple questions that require clear, simple answers. Getting these answers (NO is also an answer) in a reasonable period of time is a right, not a privilege..."

    Americans have the right to determine how many immigrants they need and how to handle this issue. But we have the right to follow clear and simple rules for that process. It seems to me that the way they currently handle the H1 immigrants has a lot to do with the "Las Vegas" type of business (gambling) - shall I get my LC approved, when will I get the LC approved, shall I get a GC, when can I get the GC etc. The rules change permanently and half a million hard working people are in limbo for a decade and more. That is not fair and this is what you have to explain to the Americans.

    And, btw, if the local IT "professionals" you were debating with were so great, they would not be unemployed...





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  • Alice in Wonderland



  • santb1975
    12-02 11:00 PM
    :D:D


    One quick and dirty one is to...people who want to 'Add to Reputation' of posts...need to buy:)

    I can't believe...I got few red dots....for this post. These Red dots that many of our IVers donate so generously need to be purchased in order to give it to anybody next time.

    Just kidding, don't take this seriously. Some people found this post 'illogical' :)



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  • Here#39;s a look at how new Alice



  • english_august
    07-12 11:10 AM
    It would have been great if everyone could have a similar white t-shirt with a slogan on front that said

    "Ask me about legal immigrants"

    and on the back

    "www.immigrationvoice.org"

    Obviously this is not possible at this stage. How about everyone at least pinning something similar that is printed on a paper on their shirts? Similar to how runners do (http://z.about.com/d/studenttravel/1/0/s/H/ujena-marathon-solo-2.jpg)

    It will help the organizers and any media persons in identifying the rally participants easily.





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  • Bpositive
    02-02 10:23 AM
    Following is my case....please help me make a decision on whether to see this through or not submit passport and just travel back on AP...

    Chennai consulate H1. (transfer from F1-OPT-H1).

    January 2nd - date of visa interview. Asked for additional info - 221g because I have a Phd in biology

    January 6th - submitted additional information. research. publications etc.

    February 1st (friday afternoon)- status updated to 'send passport' on chennai consulate website.

    My concerns are -

    1. How long does it take VFS to return passport, if I submit passport on Monday, February 4th?

    2. Would I still have to go through the PIMS verification or should I assume the consulate has already done this because they have asked me to submit passport?

    Please help if you can. I have already rescheduled my tickets twice...





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  • eb2waiter
    06-13 06:22 PM
    apply now...

    I meant save from retrogression not marriage :D





    StuckInTheMuck
    05-01 10:00 AM
    That's interesting...from my visits to various threads and from wait times of my friends (3 to precise) who recently got naturalized, the average time after receipt of N-400 to taking oath is around only 4 to 5 months.
    Good to know, thanks. Maybe we were reading different threads :) One thing though, because of the heavy rush of citizenship filing in 2007, combined with the election-year pressure of 2008, petitions were fast-tracked in recent years. There are so many confounding factors, anything is possible.





    learning01
    04-07 11:56 AM
    via Visa card. This is not the first time I am contributing.
    For IV team to track receipt, here is my confirmation #
    1888-2418-4440-8828.

    I request others, particularly new members to do the same. Basic pledge suggestion, to each of us:
    because we are scattered, we cannot mobilize numbers for a street march with placards. Let me do at least one contribution of USD 100.



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